NEIGHBORLY ADVICE

2024 CALGARY REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

City of Calgary, January, 2024 – S

Several dominating themes emerged in 2023 that had a significant impact on the Canadian housing market.  We will dive into these core themes - detail how they impacted Alberta and Calgary specifically in 2023 and suggest how their trajectories will steer us in 2024.  For initial context and perspective, the Calgary Real Estate Board predicted a roughly 6.5% increase in prices across all product types in 2024 – with detached homes increasing 4%, condos increasing 9.5% and semi-detached 5.5% and row 9%.

MIGRATION

In 2023, Alberta experienced some of the highest migration levels on record.  This consisted of both international immigration and interprovincial migration.  In total, Alberta’s population grew by 4.3% in the 12 months preceding October 1st (which is the latest statistical data that is available from the province).  In the third quarter alone, Alberta’s population increased by 1.3% adding 56,306 (36,212 From international immigration and 17,094 from interprovincial migration).  The interprovincial migration doesn’t tell the full story as the actual figure of people that moved to Alberta in Q3 was 29,129; however, the way migration is calculated is amount of people that moved to Alberta – minus the people that left the province.  The total moving into the province was 6.9% lower than the third quarter of the previous year but the number of people leaving the province also dropped by a larger number (11%) meaning less people are leaving the province.  Calgary is anticipated to account for over 50% of the growth seen by the province, as it did in 2023. The Calgary Real Estate Board is anticipating that the population increase in Calgary will slow down in 2024, dropping by roughly 1% from 4.7% in 2023 to 3.6% in 2024.  

CHART | CANADIAN IMMIGRATION HISTORY

There are rumors that Q4 numbers will be equally strong with international and net inter-provincial migration.   The federal government has brought in regulations aimed at alleviating housing availability, but these will have little impact in the near term as they don’t anticipate decreasing overall immigration targets much below what we have seen in the past few years beyond 2026.  Current immigration levels have nearly doubled over the last 8 years putting a major strain on housing costs across Canada. 

INTEREST RATES

Q3 2023 saw the first pauses to increasing mortgage rates since early 2022.  10 consecutive rate hikes brought rates to heights not seen for 25 years, taking rates from 0.25% in February of 2022 to 5% which they have held since July of 2023 in one of the fastest rate hike cycles in history.  This large increase in rates has put a strain on households, especially those who are renewing or have been riding the increase with a variable rate mortgage.  Mortgage costs have increased or are anticipated to increase as much as 40% for those who purchased or renewed at the bottom in 2020.  This disparity between rates is keeping many people on the sidelines, both sellers - because it is hard to move up and qualify for a more expensive home with the increase in rates - and buyers, who are waiting for their purchasing power to increase and their monthly payments to fall.  This has certainly wreaked havoc on supply and demand dynamics.  

CHART | CANADIAN INTEREST RATE HISTORY

Initially interest rates were anticipated to fall by April 2024 but the chances of this are decreasing due to sticky inflation figures just released showing inflation at 3.4% - a slight increase from the previous month and bucking the trend that the Bank of Canada would like to see before they decrease.  Alas, we are likely looking to the end of Q2 for any change in rates in the June 5th announcement.  The spring market will factor in the anticipated decrease with purchasers potentially opting for a longer possession so they can capitalize on rate reductions in June.  Although we anticipate a strong spring market this could potentially delay the flurry of activity and extend into the summer months.

INVENTORY

Inventory in Calgary has been declining over the past four quarters and finished the year on average with a roughly 30% decline year-over-year – and this is coming from a year that already had historically low inventory levels.   Both detached, semi-detached and row experienced a decrease in sales by 20,10,11% respectively but the decrease in inventory mitigated any price declines and drove prices up in all quadrants and segments.  Apartments showed a decrease in inventory of 20% while also experiencing an increase in sales of 27% reflecting price increases in the range of over 13% in 2023.  The increase in prices brought the prices close to all time highs experienced in 2014, however, there are still segments of the market (notably inner-city) that are still 5-10% below those levels.  The real estate board is predicting a 9.5% increase in condo prices in 2024 which should bring most condo prices to new heights. 

CHART | CALGARY INVENTORY HISTORY

As we start 2024 we are entering with some of the lowest inventory levels in history.  A search for active properties in Calgary metro area shows only 1622 properties currently active and for sale (as of end of January).  A search for sold properties in the last 30 days to establish how many months of inventory there are shows 1594, now while this doesn’t include properties that are currently conditionally sold (572) it represents a declining inventory level both month-over-month and year-over year.  The market in all segments in Calgary is entrenched in sellers’ territory and current inventory levels will likely push up pricing higher than predicted by the real estate board if they trend in a similar trajectory.

OTHER MARKET OBSERVATIONS

Other micro trends that could impact pricing and purchaser intent, are, regional price disparities, zoning relaxations, and short-term rental regulations.

INNER-CITY STILL UNVERVALUED

The most substantial gains in Calgary were in the more affordable inventory regions in NE and East with 18.2 and 26.2 percent increases respectively.  This speaks to the affordability factor as these quadrants were the most affordable, and potentially also to the demographics of recent migration.  The city centre had the lowest levels of increase at 5.3% leading me to believe that is currently undervalued.  The covid era saw an exodus from inner-city that should start to reverse course. 

CHART | CALGARY PRICING INCREASES 2023 BY QUADRANT

ZONING CHANGES

The City of Calgary, as part of their “Home is Here strategy” directed Administration to take actions to address the housing crisis. One of these actions is to propose citywide rezoning to a base residential district,  to allow for single-detached, semi-detached, rowhouse, and townhouse homes on parcels that currently only allow for single – or semi-detached homes. To accomplish this, The City is looking to rezone properties to R-CG, R-G and H-GO.  It will likely take the year to fully approve through council as they need to run through the usual red tape and consultations, but I anticipate we will follow-suit with Edmonton whose changes came into effect January 1^st 2024.  This substantially increases the density that can be built on most residential lots in the city.  They City of Calgary is hoping to garner attention from the federal government and the Housing Accelerator Fund for cash to support increased housing development.  We believe that long-term these zoning changes will increase demand for primarily single family detached dwelling neighbourhoods and drive up the land value of these prime R-C1 lots. Developers will also be looking for nice corner lots in established single family communities where they can most easily build higher density developments.  Stay tuned for higher density 4-plex and 8-plex inventory in your neighbourhood.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL RESTRICTIONS

Short-term rental restrictions could steer buyer demand and investors away from the condo markets.  This is intended to increase the stock of longer-term housing options and decrease the appetite for investors to purchase homes that were once attractive only from a short-term investment perspective.  The regulations that have already been enacted in many other markets restrict homeowners from renting short-term units that are not their primary residence.  Regulators also hope that these investors, once no longer able to make the same return and not looking to rent long-term will bring this inventory back to the resale market and thus increase inventory.  If this trend continues which is expected, it could shift buyer intent.  Be wary of air-bnb properties as an investment and have a back-up plan. 

2024 CALGARY REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK

Immigration, interest rates and Inventory are the three biggest stories to watch and those that have the largest bearing on the direction of the real estate market in Calgary in 2024.  We anticipate inventory levels to remain at historic lows, with pent up demand to offset any decrease in migration this year. Interest rates should start to decline but maybe later in the year than originally anticipated.  All markets will perform well, and we could see stronger than anticipated price growth should these three factors work together in a perfect storm of low inventory, stronger than anticipated migration and declining interest rates that instigate higher demand. 

Calgary housing market sees shifts

City of Calgary, September, 2024 – 

 Housing activity continues to move away from the extreme sellers’ market conditions experienced throughout the spring. Easing sales, combined with gains in supply, pushed the months of supply above two months in August, a level not seen since the end of 2022.

As expected, rising new home construction and gains in new listings are starting to support a better-supplied housing market,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “This trend is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the year, but it’s important to note that supply levels remain low, especially for lower-priced properties. It will take time for supply levels to return to those that support more balanced conditions.

Inventory levels in August reached 4,487 units, 37 per cent higher than last August but nearly 25 per cent lower than long-term trends for the month. Higher-priced properties mostly drove the supply gains, as the most affordable homes in each property type continued to report supply declines.

The supply gains were made possible by both an increase in new listings in August and a pullback in sales activity. There were 2,186 sales in August, representing a 20 per cent decline from last year's record high but still 17 per cent higher than long-term averages for the month. The sales declines were driven by homes priced below $600,000.

Following stronger-than-expected gains earlier in the year, the pace of price growth is starting to slow. In August, the total unadjusted residential benchmark price was $601,800, six per cent higher than last year and just slightly lower than last month. Year-to-date, the average benchmark price rose by nine per cent.

August 2024 Housing Statistics

Detached

Detached home sales fell by 14 per cent compared to last year, as gains in homes priced above $600,000 were not enough to offset declines in the lower price ranges, which continue to struggle with low supply levels. In August, there were 2,011 detached homes available in inventory, with over 85 per cent priced above $600,000.

The improving higher-end supply compared to sales helped push the months of supply up to nearly two months. While market conditions are still tight, this is a significant improvement from the under-one-month supply experienced in the spring. Shifting conditions are relieving some pressure on home prices. In August, the unadjusted detached benchmark price was $762,600, slightly lower than last month but still over nine per cent higher than last year.

Semi-Detached

With 297 new listings and 172 sales, the sales-to-new-listings ratio in August dropped to 58 per cent, which is more consistent with pre-pandemic levels. This shift supported a rise in inventory levels, and the months of supply rose to nearly two months.

While conditions remain relatively tight, the boost in new listings has helped ease some of the pressure on prices. In August, the unadjusted benchmark price was $681,200, a decline from last month but nearly 10 per cent higher than last year.

Row

New listings row for homes priced above $400,000, contributing to year-to-date growth of nearly 16 per cent. At the same time, slower sales over the past three months have contributed to inventory gains. In August, there were 660 units available, a 75 per cent increase over the exceptionally low levels reported last year. While inventories are still low by historical standards, as with other property types, this shift is helping ease pressure on home prices.

The unadjusted benchmark price in August was $461,700, slightly lower than last month but over 12 per cent higher than last August. Monthly adjustments were not consistent across districts, with adjustments in the City Centre, North West, North, and West districts mostly driving monthly declines. Despite the monthly adjustments, year-over-year prices remain higher than last year across all districts and range from a low of 10 per cent in the City Centre to a high of 26 per cent in the East district.

Apartment Condominium

New listings in August reached 1,001 units, a record high for the month. The gains in new listings were met with a pullback in sales, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to drop to 60 per cent and inventories to rise to 1,476 units. Unlike other property types, overall condominium inventory levels were relatively consistent with longer-term trends for the month.

Rising inventory and easing sales caused the months of supply to increase to nearly two and a half months, not as high as levels seen before the pandemic but an improvement over the extremely tight conditions seen over the past 18 months. In August, the unadjusted benchmark price was $346,500, similar to last month and nearly 16 per cent higher than last year’s prices.

Supply levels improve, taking some pressure off prices

City of Calgary, August, 2024 –

With the busy spring market behind us, we are starting to see some shifts in supply levels. With 2,380 sales and 3,604 new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 66 per cent, supporting a gain in inventory. 

Inventories rose to 4,158 units, still 33 per cent below what we typically see in July, but the first time they have pushed above 4,000 units in nearly two years. Although the majority of supply growth occurred for homes priced above $600,000, the rise has helped shift the market away from the extreme sellers’ market conditions experienced throughout the spring.

“While we are still dealing with supply challenges, especially for lower-priced homes, more options in both the new home and resale market have helped take some of the upward pressure off home prices this month,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “This is in line with our expectations for the second half of the year, and should inventories continue to rise, we should start to see more balanced conditions and stability in home prices.”

July sales eased by 10 per cent over last year's record high but were still higher than long-term trends for the month. Like last month, the pullback in sales has been driven by homes priced below $600,000. Nonetheless, the gain in inventory combined with slower sales caused the months of supply to rise to 1.8 months, still low enough to favour the seller but a significant improvement from the under one month reported earlier this year. 

Improved supply helped slow the pace of monthly price growth for each property type. In July, the total residential benchmark price was $606,700, similar to last month and nearly eight per cent higher than last year's levels. 

Detached

Detached home sales in July fell by eight per cent, as the 15 per cent rise for homes priced above $600,000 was not enough to offset the 50 per cent decline occurring in the lower price ranges. The decline in the lower price ranges reflects limited availability as inventories and new listings continue to fall for lower-priced homes. Year-to-date detached sales have eased by just over one per cent compared to last year.

With 1,098 sales and 1,721 new listings this month, inventories rose to 1,950 units. Inventories are still low based on historical levels, but the gain did help push the months of supply up to nearly two months and supports some stability in prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in July was $767,800, similar to last month but 11 per cent higher than last July.

Semi-Detached

Relative affordability continues to attract purchasers to the semi-detached sector. While sales did slow slightly compared to last year, year-to-date sales reached 1,518 units, six per cent higher than last year. The growth in sales was possible thanks to gains in new listings. However, conditions remain relatively tight, with a 76 per cent sales-to-new listings ratio and months of supply of 1.5 months.

While the pace of monthly price growth has slowed, at an unadjusted benchmark price of $687,900, prices are nearly 12 per cent higher than last year. The highest price growth continues to occur in the city's most affordable North East and East districts.

Row

Gains in row new listings relative to a pullback in sales caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 73 per cent this month. This supported gains in inventory levels, and the months of supply rose to 1.3 months.

While conditions continue favouring the seller, the shift prevented further monthly price gains this month. Nonetheless, at a benchmark price of $464,200, levels are still nearly 15 per cent higher than last year. Year-over-year price gains have ranged from a low of 13 per cent in the City Centre and North districts to over 20 per cent in the North East and East districts.

Apartment Condominium

Sales in July slowed to 659 units, as a significant drop in sales occurred for properties priced below $300,000. Like the other property types, limited supply choices for the lower-priced units prevented stronger sales activity.

New listings in July were 1,043 units, high enough to cause the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 63 per cent. This supported inventory gains and months of supply of over two months. Improved supply relative to sales helped slow the pace of monthly price growth. However, the unadjusted benchmark price of $346,300 is still 17 per cent higher than levels reported last year at this time.